As part of the Think20 (T20) meeting, held in Rio de Janeiro in the first week of October 2024, Asuntos del Sur (Argentina), E+ Energy Transition Institution (Brazil), and the International Development Research Centre (Canada) organized a side event titled “Global Perspectives on the (Missing) Human Rights Component of a Just Climate Transition”. The T20, composed of think tanks and research centers from member and guest countries, is a Group of 20 (G20) engagement group that promotes collaboration to generate and propose evidence-based solutions and policy recommendations for current and future global challenges including international financial and economic stability, climate change, and sustainable development.

The Beirut-based The Policy Initiative (TPI) team was unable to join the T20 side event, neither in person nor virtually, due to Israeli military escalation in Lebanon. This latest episode of violence began on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah—a Lebanese Shia Muslim political party and armed resistance group that emerged following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 —launched three missiles on Israeli-occupied Shebaa’ farms in support of the Palestinian nationalist cause amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, which began on October 7, 2023.  Israeli military operations in Lebanon, as in Gaza, have continued to ramp up in an excessive retaliation to Hezbollah’s commitment to maintaining a “pressure front” in support of the Palestinians.  On October 14, 2024, Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that 2,309 people have been killed and 10,782 wounded since  the beginning of the Israeli aggression on the country.¹ Moreover, Lebanese authorities estimate that nearly 1.2 million have been displaced by Israeli offensive action,² with tens of thousands of families left without access to basic services and more than 52,000 residential and non-residential units destroyed.³ Most casualties have occurred in the last three weeks, during which the highest waves of displacement were also recorded, with over 1 million people fleeing Israeli air strikes amid fears of invasion.⁴ In Gaza, Israel’s ongoing ground and air raids have killed at least 42,227 people and injured more than 98,464 since October 7, 2023, mostly women and children.⁵  An estimated 1.9 million Palestinians (around 90 per cent of Gaza population) are now displaced.⁶

What does the war in Gaza and Lebanon have to do with the global mobilization to combat climate change, aspirations for a just transition, and the G20 summit that will be held this year in Rio de Janeiro from November 18 to 19? Here, we highlight four essential points to consider in discussions about the (missing) human rights dimension of the transition, as well as the T20 recommendations to the G20.

First, one cannot talk about climate justice, let alone social and environmental justice, in the context of widespread violence and multiple ongoing armed conflicts around the world.⁷ Military emissions—a “taboo topic” in international climate negotiations⁸—are estimated to constitute more than 5.5 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, excluding emissions from direct combat operations.⁹ The G20 nations—the world’s largest economies—are responsible for 87 percent of global military spending, currently exceeding USD 2 trillion a year.¹⁰ Alone, the United States has spent a record USD 17.9 billion in military aid to Israel since the war in Gaza began a year ago. This figure may not even represent the full extent of aid.¹¹ Moreover, Great Britain, France, Germany, and other European countries are providing military assistance to Israel, often within legal and diplomatic frameworks, including the supply of parts that could be used in Israel’s domestic production of weapons.¹² 

Second, wars exacerbate environmental and ecological crises, destroy infrastructure and livelihoods, and lead to large-scale displacements. Human rights experts have described the deadly violence that Israel is applying in Gaza as “genocide,”¹³ citing international law, which defines genocide as “acts committed with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group.”¹⁴ Some commentators have also argued that the loss of life inflicted on Palestinians by Israel, along with widespread destruction of homes, infrastructure, the urban fabric, and the natural environment, constitutes “domicide”,¹⁵ “urbicide”,¹⁶ “ecocide”,¹⁷ and even “holocide”,¹⁸ noting that the scale of aggression has led not only to mass forced population movements but also to “the annihilation of an entire social and ecological fabric”.¹⁹ Israel is applying the same brutal force in its attacks on Lebanon that it has used in Gaza,²⁰ disregarding international law and the condemnations of UN experts.²¹ Like in Gaza, it has adopted a scorched-earth policy, obliterating everything that sustains life and poisoning the land with white phosphorus,²² in addition to employing  incendiary weapons banned or restricted in wars.²³

Third, the disproportionate Israeli response to the Hamas cross-border attack of October 7, the unrelenting assault on the Gaza Strip since that date, and the expanding and escalatory violence in the region represent a strategic shift to render entire areas unlivable, both physically and economically. Political analysts view Israel’s total war as part of its ongoing attempts “to impose a new regional order,”²⁴ serving its settler colonial project and U.S.-supported expansionist strategy in the Middle East.²⁵ In this respect, land and resources control is the primary driver of conflict and a catalyst for the economic and geopolitical domination associated with the envisioned “Greater Israel”.²⁶ Israel's territorial ambitions in Lebanon have historically focused on areas south of the Litani River and its waters.²⁷ Alongside its current military operations, Israel is also waging a psychological war as evident in real estate advertisements and websites (such as uritsafon.com, now taken down) that promote luxury homes and new settlements in southern Lebanon.²⁸

Fourth, the U.S. vision of a new Middle East, embraced by Israel, involves not only territorial expansion but also the establishment of a network of alliances and economic dependencies across the region. The recently announced India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)—introduced during the 2023 G20 Summit in New Delhi—supports this overarching objective.²⁹ While it serves the strategic goals of participating countries, the IMEC chiefly benefits the U.S. in its competition with China. It seeks to transform the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East in favor of U.S. and Israeli interests through an ambitious plan that expands access to clean energy and strengthens trade connectivity and economic ties between India and Europe via the Arabian Gulf, Jordan, and Israel.³⁰ Despite claims about its potential to “unlock sustainable and inclusive economic growth”,³¹ the IMEC is expected to marginalize the economic roles of regional powers like Egypt, Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria.

To be sure, the intensification of war and geopolitical tensions in Gaza and Lebanon, coupled with divisions over the Russian war in Ukraine, presents significant challenges for the Rio G20 summit. The urgent need for effectively coordinated climate action adds another layer of complexity to the discussions. Analysts predict that 2024 may be one of the most unpredictable years for the G20, raising concerns that the summit could end in discord.³² Unless G20 leaders genuinely reaffirm their commitment to upholding human rights, beginning with the unequivocal condemnation of war crimes, stopping the armament of aggressive states, and placing sanctions on them, there can be no assurance that geopolitical conflicts will be addressed with justice and accountability at their core. Talking about the human rights component of a just climate transition in a world that has forsaken its humanity and plundered and destroyed the environment would amount to mere hypocrisy.